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  Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming

Fan, J., Meng, J., Ashkenazy, Y., Havlin, S., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2018): Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming. - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 115, 52, E12128-E12134.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1811068115

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 Creators:
Fan, Jingfang1, Author              
Meng, Jun1, Author              
Ashkenazy, Y.2, Author
Havlin, S.2, Author
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate warming, and they may have widespread and diverse effects on health, agriculture, economics, and political conflicts. Still, the detection and quantification of climate change, both in observations and climate models, constitute a main focus of the scientific community. Here, we develop an approach based on network and percolation frameworks to study the impacts of climate changes in the past decades using historical models and reanalysis records, and we analyze the expected upcoming impacts using various future global warming scenarios. We find an abrupt transition during the evolution of the climate network, indicating a consistent poleward expansion of the largest cluster that corresponds to the tropical area, as well as the weakening of the strength of links in the tropic. This is found both in the reanalysis data and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 21st century climate change simulations. The analysis is based on high-resolution surface (2 m) air temperature field records. We discuss the underlying mechanism for the observed expansion of the tropical cluster and associate it with changes in atmospheric circulation represented by the weakening and expansion of the Hadley cell. Our framework can also be useful for forecasting the extent of the tropical cluster to detect its influence on different areas in response to global warming.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1811068115
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
PIKDOMAIN: Transdisciplinary Concepts & Methods - Research Domain IV
PIKDOMAIN: Director Emeritus / Executive Staff / Science & Society
eDoc: 8285
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: Director Emeritus Schellnhuber
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Network- and machine-learning-based prediction of extreme events
 Degree: -

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Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 115 (52) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: E12128 - E12134 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals410