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  Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level

Huang, S., Kumar, R., Rakovec, O., Aich, V., Wang, X., Samaniego, L., Liersch, S., Krysanova, V. (2018): Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level. - Environmental Research Letters, 13, 12, 124005.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae94b

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Huang, Shaochun1, Autor              
Kumar, R.2, Autor
Rakovec, O.2, Autor
Aich, Valentin1, Autor              
Wang, X.2, Autor
Samaniego, L.2, Autor
Liersch, Stefan1, Autor              
Krysanova, Valentina1, Autor              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: This study assesses the flood characteristics (timing, magnitude and frequency) in the pre-industrial and historical periods, and analyzes climate change impacts on floods at the warming levels of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level in four large river basins as required by the Paris agreement. Three well-established hydrological models (HMs) were forced with bias-corrected outputs from four global climate models (GCMs) for the pre-industrial, historical and future periods until 2100. The long pre-industrial and historical periods were subdivided into multiple 31-year subperiods to investigate the natural variability. The mean flood characteristics in the pre-industrial period were derived from the large ensemble based on all GCMs, HMs and 31-year subperiods, and compared to the ensemble means in the historical and future periods. In general, the variance of simulated flood characteristics is quite large in the pre-industrial and historical periods. Mostly GCMs and HMs contribute to the variance, especially for flood timing and magnitude, while the selection of 31-year subperiods is an important source of variance for flood frequency. The comparison between the ensemble means shows that there are already some changes in flood characteristics between the pre-industrial and historical periods. There is a clear shift towards earlier flooding for the Rhine (1.5 K scenario) and Upper Mississippi (3.0 K scenario). The flood magnitudes show a substantial increase in the Rhine and Upper Yellow only under the 3.0 K scenario. The floods are projected to occur more frequently in the Rhine under the 1.5 and 2.0 K scenarios, and less frequently in the Upper Mississippi under all scenarios.

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 Datum: 2018
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aae94b
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 8346
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Model / method: SWIM
Regional keyword: Europe
Regional keyword: Africa
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
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Titel: Environmental Research Letters
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 13 (12) Artikelnummer: 124005 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326