English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
 
 
DownloadE-Mail
  Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level

Huang, S., Kumar, R., Rakovec, O., Aich, V., Wang, X., Samaniego, L., Liersch, S., Krysanova, V. (2018): Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level. - Environmental Research Letters, 13, 12, 124005.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae94b

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
8346oa.pdf (Publisher version), 838KB
Name:
8346oa.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-
License:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Huang, Shaochun1, Author              
Kumar, R.2, Author
Rakovec, O.2, Author
Aich, Valentin1, Author              
Wang, X.2, Author
Samaniego, L.2, Author
Liersch, Stefan1, Author              
Krysanova, Valentina1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: This study assesses the flood characteristics (timing, magnitude and frequency) in the pre-industrial and historical periods, and analyzes climate change impacts on floods at the warming levels of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level in four large river basins as required by the Paris agreement. Three well-established hydrological models (HMs) were forced with bias-corrected outputs from four global climate models (GCMs) for the pre-industrial, historical and future periods until 2100. The long pre-industrial and historical periods were subdivided into multiple 31-year subperiods to investigate the natural variability. The mean flood characteristics in the pre-industrial period were derived from the large ensemble based on all GCMs, HMs and 31-year subperiods, and compared to the ensemble means in the historical and future periods. In general, the variance of simulated flood characteristics is quite large in the pre-industrial and historical periods. Mostly GCMs and HMs contribute to the variance, especially for flood timing and magnitude, while the selection of 31-year subperiods is an important source of variance for flood frequency. The comparison between the ensemble means shows that there are already some changes in flood characteristics between the pre-industrial and historical periods. There is a clear shift towards earlier flooding for the Rhine (1.5 K scenario) and Upper Mississippi (3.0 K scenario). The flood magnitudes show a substantial increase in the Rhine and Upper Yellow only under the 3.0 K scenario. The floods are projected to occur more frequently in the Rhine under the 1.5 and 2.0 K scenarios, and less frequently in the Upper Mississippi under all scenarios.

Details

show
hide
Language(s):
 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aae94b
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 8346
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Model / method: SWIM
Regional keyword: Europe
Regional keyword: Africa
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 13 (12) Sequence Number: 124005 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326