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  Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations

Tesfay, D., Wei, P., Zheng, Y., Duan, J., Kurths, J. (2020): Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations. - Applied Mathematics and Computation, 369, 124868.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23831 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23831_5
Genre: Journal Article

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Tesfay, D.1, Author
Wei, P.1, Author
Zheng, Y.1, Author
Duan, J.1, Author
Kurths, Jürgen2, Author              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: In this work we study the impact of non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy motion on transitions between metastable equilibrium states (or attractors) in a stochastic Stommel two-compartment model for the thermohaline circulation. By maximizing probability density of the solution process associated with a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, we compute maximal likely pathways and identify corresponding maximal likely stable equilibrium states. Our numerical results indicate that random fluctuations with small intensity induces a weakened thermohaline circulation when the Lévy noise stability index is from 0.1 to 0.7.

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 Dates: 2020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
eDoc: 8911
Working Group: Network- and machine-learning-based prediction of extreme events
 Degree: -

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Title: Applied Mathematics and Computation
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 369 Sequence Number: 124868 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/applied-mathematics-computation
Publisher: Elsevier