Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the 
thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations

Tesfay, D.; Wei, P.; Zheng, Y.; Duan, J.; Kurths, Jürgen

doi:10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868

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Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations

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Tesfay, D.
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Wei, P.
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Zheng, Y.
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Duan, J.
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/persons/resource/Juergen.Kurths

Kurths, Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Tesfay, D., Wei, P., Zheng, Y., Duan, J., Kurths, J. (2020): Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations. - Applied Mathematics and Computation, 369, 124868.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868

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In this work we study the impact of non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy motion on transitions between metastable equilibrium states (or attractors) in a stochastic Stommel two-compartment model for the thermohaline circulation. By maximizing probability density of the solution process associated with a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, we compute maximal likely pathways and identify corresponding maximal likely stable equilibrium states. Our numerical results indicate that random fluctuations with small intensity induces a weakened thermohaline circulation when the Lévy noise stability index is from 0.1 to 0.7.