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Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations

Urheber*innen

Tesfay,  D.
External Organizations;

Wei,  P.
External Organizations;

Zheng,  Y.
External Organizations;

Duan,  J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Juergen.Kurths

Kurths,  Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Zitation

Tesfay, D., Wei, P., Zheng, Y., Duan, J., Kurths, J. (2020): Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations. - Applied Mathematics and Computation, 369, 124868.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23831
Zusammenfassung
In this work we study the impact of non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy motion on transitions between metastable equilibrium states (or attractors) in a stochastic Stommel two-compartment model for the thermohaline circulation. By maximizing probability density of the solution process associated with a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, we compute maximal likely pathways and identify corresponding maximal likely stable equilibrium states. Our numerical results indicate that random fluctuations with small intensity induces a weakened thermohaline circulation when the Lévy noise stability index is from 0.1 to 0.7.