Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the 
thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations

Tesfay, D.; Wei, P.; Zheng, Y.; Duan, J.; Kurths, Jürgen

doi:10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868

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Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations

Authors

Tesfay, D.
External Organizations;

Wei, P.
External Organizations;

Zheng, Y.
External Organizations;

Duan, J.
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/persons/resource/Juergen.Kurths

Kurths, Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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引用

Tesfay, D., Wei, P., Zheng, Y., Duan, J., & Kurths, J. (2020). Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 369:. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23831

要旨

In this work we study the impact of non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy motion on transitions between metastable equilibrium states (or attractors) in a stochastic Stommel two-compartment model for the thermohaline circulation. By maximizing probability density of the solution process associated with a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, we compute maximal likely pathways and identify corresponding maximal likely stable equilibrium states. Our numerical results indicate that random fluctuations with small intensity induces a weakened thermohaline circulation when the Lévy noise stability index is from 0.1 to 0.7.