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  Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations

Tesfay, D., Wei, P., Zheng, Y., Duan, J., Kurths, J. (2020): Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations. - Applied Mathematics and Computation, 369, 124868.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868

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???ViewItemFull_lblCiteItemAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23831 ???ViewItemFull_lblCiteItemVersionAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23831_5
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Tesfay, D.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Wei, P.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Zheng, Y.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Duan, J.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Kurths, Jürgen2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
???ViewItemFull_lblAffiliations???:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: In this work we study the impact of non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy motion on transitions between metastable equilibrium states (or attractors) in a stochastic Stommel two-compartment model for the thermohaline circulation. By maximizing probability density of the solution process associated with a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, we compute maximal likely pathways and identify corresponding maximal likely stable equilibrium states. Our numerical results indicate that random fluctuations with small intensity induces a weakened thermohaline circulation when the Lévy noise stability index is from 0.1 to 0.7.

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2020
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblIdentifiers???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_DOI???: 10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: RD4 - Complexity Science
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_EDOC???: 8911
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Network- and machine-learning-based prediction of extreme events
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: Applied Mathematics and Computation
???ViewItemFull_lblSourceGenre???: ???ENUM_GENRE_JOURNAL???, SCI, Scopus
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???ViewItemFull_lblPages???: ???lbl_noEntry??? ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceVolumeIssue???: 369 ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceSequenceNo???: 124868 ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceStartEndPage???: ???lbl_noEntry??? ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceIdentifier???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_CONE???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/applied-mathematics-computation
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PUBLISHER???: Elsevier