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  Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems

Ito, A., Reyer, C. P. O., Gädeke, A., Ciais, P., Chang, J., Chen, M., Francois, L., Forrest, M., Hickler, T., Ostberg, S., Hao, S., Thiery, W., Tian, H. (2020): Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems. - Environmental Research Letters, 15, 4, 044006.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b

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 Creators:
Ito, A.1, Author
Reyer, Christopher P. O.2, Author              
Gädeke, Anne2, Author              
Ciais, P.1, Author
Chang, J.1, Author
Chen, M.1, Author
Francois, L.1, Author
Forrest, M.1, Author
Hickler, T.1, Author
Ostberg, Sebastian2, Author              
Hao, S.1, Author
Thiery, W.1, Author
Tian, H.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems.

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 Dates: 2020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
eDoc: 8932
Research topic keyword: Biodiversity
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Forest and Ecosystem Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 15 (4) Sequence Number: 044006 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing