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  Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework

Donges, J. F., Heitzig, J., Barfuss, W., Wiedermann, M., Kassel, J. A., Kittel, T., Kolb, J. J., Kolster, T., Müller-Hansen, F., Otto, I. M., Zimmerer, K. B., Lucht, W. (2020): Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework. - Earth System Dynamics, 11, 2, 395-413.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23956 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23956_6
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann1, Author              
Heitzig, Jobst1, Author              
Barfuss, Wolfram1, Author              
Wiedermann, Marc1, Author              
Kassel, Johannes A.1, Author              
Kittel, Tim2, Author
Kolb, Jakob Johannes1, Author              
Kolster, Till1, Author              
Müller-Hansen, Finn1, Author              
Otto, Ilona M.1, Author              
Zimmerer, Kilian B.1, Author              
Lucht, Wolfgang1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocene requires explicitly taking into account the increasing magnitude of processes operating in human societies, their cultures, economies and technosphere and their growing feedback entanglement with those in the physical, chemical and biological systems of the planet. However, current state-of-the-art Earth system models do not represent dynamic human societies and their feedback interactions with the biogeophysical Earth system and macroeconomic integrated assessment models typically do so only with limited scope. This paper (i) proposes design principles for constructing world–Earth models (WEMs) for Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene, i.e., models of social (world)–ecological (Earth) coevolution on up to planetary scales, and (ii) presents the copan:CORE open simulation modeling framework for developing, composing and analyzing such WEMs based on the proposed principles. The framework provides a modular structure to flexibly construct and study WEMs. These can contain biophysical (e.g., carbon cycle dynamics), socio-metabolic or economic (e.g., economic growth or energy system changes), and sociocultural processes (e.g., voting on climate policies or changing social norms) and their feedback interactions, and they are based on elementary entity types, e.g., grid cells and social systems. Thereby, copan:CORE enables the epistemic flexibility needed for contributions towards Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene given the large diversity of competing theories and methodologies used for describing socio-metabolic or economic and sociocultural processes in the Earth system by various fields and schools of thought. To illustrate the capabilities of the framework, we present an exemplary and highly stylized WEM implemented in copan:CORE that illustrates how endogenizing sociocultural processes and feedbacks such as voting on climate policies based on socially learned environmental awareness could fundamentally change macroscopic model outcomes.

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 Dates: 2020-03-072020-05-04
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Method: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-395-2020
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
eDoc: 8997
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Economics
Model / method: Agent-based Models
Model / method: copan:CORE
Model / method: Open Source Software
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Game Theory & Networks of Interacting Agents
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
MDB-ID: yes - 3032
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth System Dynamics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 (2) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 395 - 413 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1402282