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Journal Article

Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework

Authors
/persons/resource/Donges

Donges,  Jonathan Friedemann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/heitzig

Heitzig,  Jobst
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Wolfram.Barfuss

Barfuss,  Wolfram
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Marc.Wiedermann

Wiedermann,  Marc
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Johannes.Kassel

Kassel,  Johannes A.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Kittel,  Tim
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/jakob.kolb

Kolb,  Jakob Johannes
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/till.kolster

Kolster,  Till
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/mhansen

Müller-Hansen,  Finn
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Ilona.Otto

Otto,  Ilona M.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Kilian.Zimmerer

Zimmerer,  Kilian B.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Wolfgang.Lucht

Lucht,  Wolfgang
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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23956oa.pdf
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Citation

Donges, J. F., Heitzig, J., Barfuss, W., Wiedermann, M., Kassel, J. A., Kittel, T., Kolb, J. J., Kolster, T., Müller-Hansen, F., Otto, I. M., Zimmerer, K. B., Lucht, W. (2020): Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework. - Earth System Dynamics, 11, 2, 395-413.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23956
Abstract
Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocene requires explicitly taking into account the increasing magnitude of processes operating in human societies, their cultures, economies and technosphere and their growing feedback entanglement with those in the physical, chemical and biological systems of the planet. However, current state-of-the-art Earth system models do not represent dynamic human societies and their feedback interactions with the biogeophysical Earth system and macroeconomic integrated assessment models typically do so only with limited scope. This paper (i) proposes design principles for constructing world–Earth models (WEMs) for Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene, i.e., models of social (world)–ecological (Earth) coevolution on up to planetary scales, and (ii) presents the copan:CORE open simulation modeling framework for developing, composing and analyzing such WEMs based on the proposed principles. The framework provides a modular structure to flexibly construct and study WEMs. These can contain biophysical (e.g., carbon cycle dynamics), socio-metabolic or economic (e.g., economic growth or energy system changes), and sociocultural processes (e.g., voting on climate policies or changing social norms) and their feedback interactions, and they are based on elementary entity types, e.g., grid cells and social systems. Thereby, copan:CORE enables the epistemic flexibility needed for contributions towards Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene given the large diversity of competing theories and methodologies used for describing socio-metabolic or economic and sociocultural processes in the Earth system by various fields and schools of thought. To illustrate the capabilities of the framework, we present an exemplary and highly stylized WEM implemented in copan:CORE that illustrates how endogenizing sociocultural processes and feedbacks such as voting on climate policies based on socially learned environmental awareness could fundamentally change macroscopic model outcomes.