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  The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection

Bodirsky, B. L., Dietrich, J. P., Martinelli, E., Stenstad, A., Pradhan, P., Gabrysch, S., Mishra, A., Weindl, I., Le Mouël, C., Rolinski, S., Baumstark, L., Wang, X., Waid, J. L., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A. (in press): The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection. - Scientific Reports.

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24559 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24559_2
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, Author              
Dietrich, Jan Philipp1, Author              
Martinelli, Eleonora1, Author              
Stenstad, Antonia1, Author              
Pradhan, Prajal1, Author              
Gabrysch, Sabine1, Author              
Mishra, Abhijeet1, Author              
Weindl, Isabelle1, Author              
Le Mouël, Chantal2, Author
Rolinski, Susanne1, Author              
Baumstark, Lavinia1, Author              
Wang, Xiaoxi1, Author              
Waid, Jillian Lee1, Author              
Lotze-Campen, Hermann1, Author              
Popp, Alexander1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The nutrition transition transforms food systems globally and shapes public health and environmental change. Here we provide a global forward‐looking assessment of a continued nutrition transition and its interlinked symptoms in respect to food consumption. These symptoms range from underweight and unbalanced diets to obesity, food waste and environmental pressure. We find that by 2050, 45% (39‐52%) of the world population will be overweight and 16% (13‐20%) obese, compared to 29% and 9% in 2010 respectively. The prevalence of underweight approximately halves but absolute numbers stagnate at 0.4‐0.7 billion. Aligned, dietary composition shifts towards animal source foods and empty calories, while the consumption of vegetables, fruits and nuts increase insufficiently. Population growth, ageing, increasing body mass and more wasteful consumption patterns are jointly pushing global food demand from 30 to 45 (43—47) Exajoules. Our comprehensive open dataset and model provides the interfaces necessary for integrated studies of global health, food systems, and environmental change. Achieving zero hunger, healthy diets, and a food demand compatible with environmental boundaries necessitates a coordinated redirection of the nutrition transition. Reducing household waste, animal source foods, and overweight could synergistically address multiple symptoms at once, while eliminating underweight would not substantially increase food demand.

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 Dates: 2020-10-05
 Publication Status: Accepted / In Press
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
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Title: Scientific Reports
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, OA
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals2_395