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  How evaluation of hydrological models influences results of climate impact assessment - an editorial

Krysanova, V., Hattermann, F. F., Kundzewicz, Z. W. (2020): How evaluation of hydrological models influences results of climate impact assessment - an editorial. - Climatic Change, 163, 3, 1121-1141.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02927-8

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24710 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24710_3
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Krysanova, Valentina1, Author              
Hattermann, Fred Fokko1, Author              
Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: This paper introduces the Special Issue (SI) “How evaluation of hydrological models influences results of climate impact assessment.” The main objectives were as follows: (a) to test a comprehensive model calibration/validation procedure, consisting of five steps, for regional-scale hydrological models; (b) to evaluate performance of global-scale hydrological models; and (c) to reveal whether the calibration/validation methods and the model evaluation results influence climate impacts in terms of the magnitude of the change signal and the uncertainty range. Here, we shortly describe the river basins and large regions used as case studies; the hydrological models, data, and climate scenarios used in the studies; and the applied approaches for model evaluation and for analysis of projections for the future. After that, we summarize the main findings. The following general conclusions could be drawn. After successful comprehensive calibration and validation, the regional-scale models are more robust and their projections for the future differ from those of the model versions after the conventional calibration and validation. Therefore, climate impacts based on the former models are more trustworthy than those simulated by the latter models. Regarding the global-scale models, using only models with satisfactory or good performance on historical data and weighting them based on model evaluation results is a more reliable approach for impact assessment compared to the ensemble mean approach that is commonly used. The former method provides impact results with higher credibility and reduced spreads in comparison to the latter approach. The studies for this SI were performed in the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP).

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 Dates: 2020-11-032020-12-15
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02927-8
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Regional keyword: Europe
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: SWIM
Model / method: LPJmL
 Degree: -

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Title: Climatic Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 163 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1121 - 1141 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals80