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  Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales

Lange, S., Volkholz, J., Geiger, T., Zhao, F., Vega, I., Veldkamp, T., Reyer, C. P. O., Warszawski, L., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Schewe, J., Bresch, D. N., Büchner, M., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., Emanuel, K., Folberth, C., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hanasaki, N., Henrot, A., Hickler, T., Honda, Y., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Koutroulis, A., Liu, W., Müller, C., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Mueller Schmied, H., Seneviratne, S. I., Stacke, T., Steinkamp, J., Thiery, W., Wada, Y., Willner, S., Yang, H., Yoshikawa, M., Yue, C., Frieler, K. (2020): Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales. - Earth's Future, 8, 12, e2020EF001616.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001616

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 Creators:
Lange, Stefan1, Author              
Volkholz, Jan1, Author              
Geiger, Tobias1, Author              
Zhao, Fang2, Author
Vega, Iliusi1, Author
Veldkamp, Ted2, Author
Reyer, Christopher P. O.1, Author              
Warszawski, Lila1, Author              
Huber, Veronika2, Author
Jägermeyr, Jonas1, Author              
Schewe, Jacob1, Author              
Bresch, David N.2, Author
Büchner, Matthias1, Author              
Chang, Jinfeng2, Author
Ciais, Philippe2, Author
Dury, Mary2, Author
Emanuel, Kerry2, Author
Folberth, Christian2, Author
Gerten, Dieter1, Author              
Gosling, Simon N.2, Author
Grillakis, Manolis2, AuthorHanasaki, Naota2, AuthorHenrot, Alexandra‐Jane2, AuthorHickler, Thomas2, AuthorHonda, Yasushi2, AuthorIto, Akihiko2, AuthorKhabarov, Nikolay2, AuthorKoutroulis, Aristeidis2, AuthorLiu, Wenfeng2, AuthorMüller, Christoph1, Author              Nishina, Kazuya2, AuthorOstberg, Sebastian1, Author              Mueller Schmied, Hannes2, AuthorSeneviratne, Sonia I.2, AuthorStacke, Tobias2, AuthorSteinkamp, Jörg2, AuthorThiery, Wim2, AuthorWada, Yoshihide2, AuthorWillner, Sven1, Author              Yang, Hong2, AuthorYoshikawa, Minoru2, AuthorYue, Chao2, AuthorFrieler, Katja1, Author               more..
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than fivefold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.

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 Dates: 2020-10-302020-11-262020-11-26
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: yes - 3052
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: LPJmL
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001616
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Forest and Ecosystem Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Data-Centric Modeling of Cross-Sectoral Impacts
Working Group: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Population Dynamics
Working Group: Numerical analysis of global economic impacts
OATYPE: Gold - DEAL Wiley
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth's Future
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 8 (12) Sequence Number: e2020EF001616 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/170925
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Publisher: Wiley