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  Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania

Zarei, A., Chemura, A., Gleixner, S., Hoff, H. (2021): Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania. - Ecological Indicators, 125, 107600.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107600

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25479 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25479_2
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Zarei, Azin1, Author              
Chemura, Abel1, Author              
Gleixner, Stephanie1, Author              
Hoff, Holger1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Livestock is important for livelihoods of millions of people across the world and yet climate change risk and impacts assessments are predominantly on cropping systems. Climate change has significant impacts on Net Primary Production (NPP) which is a grassland dynamics indicator. This study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal changes of NPP under climate scenario RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the grassland of Tanzania by 2050 and link this to potential for key livestock species. To this end, a regression model to estimate NPP was developed based on temperature (T), precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET) during the period 2001–2019. NPP fluctuation maps under future scenarios were produced as difference maps of the current (2009–2019) and future (2050). The vulnerable areas whose NPP is mostly likely to get affected by climate change in 2050 were identified. The number of livestock units in grasslands was estimated according to NPP in grasslands of Tanzania at the Provincial levels. The results indicate the mean temperature and evapotranspiration are projected to increase under both emission scenarios while precipitation will decrease. NPP is significantly positively correlated with Tmax and ET and projected increases in these variables will be beneficial to NPP under climate change. Increases of 17% in 2050 under RCP8.5 scenario are projected, with the southern parts of the country projected to have the largest increase in NPP. The southwest areas showed a decreasing trend in mean NPP of 27.95% (RCP2.6) and 13.43% (RCP8.5). The highest decrease would occur in the RCP2.6 scenario in Ruvuma Province, by contrast, the mean NPP value in the western, eastern, and central parts would increase in 2050 under both Scenarios, the largest increase would observe in Kilimanjaro, Dar-Es-Salaam and Dodoma Provinces. It was found that the number of grazing livestock such as cattle, sheep, and goats will increase in the Tanzania grasslands under both climate scenarios. As the grassland ecosystems under intensive exploitation are fragile ecosystems, a combination of improving grassland productivity and grassland conservation under environmental pressures such as climate change should be considered for sustainable grassland management.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-03-082021-03-212021-04-01
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107600
MDB-ID: pending
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Biodiversity
Research topic keyword: Land use
Regional keyword: Africa
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Adaptation in Agricultural Systems
 Degree: -

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Title: Ecological Indicators
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 125 Sequence Number: 107600 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140811
Publisher: Elsevier