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  All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C: a scenario appraisal

Warszawski, L., Kriegler, E., Lenton, T. M., Gaffney, O., Jacob, D., Klingenfeld, D., Koide, R., Máñez Costa, M., Messner, D., Nakicenovic, N., Schellnhuber, H. J., Schlosser, P., Takeuchi, K., van der Leeuw, S., Whiteman, G., Rockström, J. (2021): All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C: a scenario appraisal. - Environmental Research Letters, 16, 6, 064037.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec

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Warszawski, Lila1, Author              
Kriegler, Elmar1, Author              
Lenton, Timothy M.2, Author
Gaffney, Owen1, Author              
Jacob, Daniela2, Author
Klingenfeld, Daniel2, Author
Koide, Ryu2, Author
Máñez Costa, María2, Author
Messner, Dirk2, Author
Nakicenovic, Nebojsa2, Author
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim1, Author              
Schlosser, Peter2, Author
Takeuchi, Kazuhiko2, Author
van der Leeuw, Sander2, Author
Whiteman, Gail2, Author
Rockström, Johan1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5°C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5°C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5°C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5°C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5°C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' carbon dioxide removal with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5°C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfill these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, this subset of 1.5°C scenarios shows a range of 15-22 Gt CO2 (16-22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039-2061 (2049-2057 interquartile range).

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 Dates: 2021-05-072021-05-072021-05-25
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec
MDB-ID: yes - 3367
PIKDOMAIN: Director / Executive Staff / Science & Society
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: Director Emeritus / Executive Staff / Science & Society
Organisational keyword: Director Rockström
Organisational keyword: Director Emeritus Schellnhuber
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: CO2 Removal
Regional keyword: Global
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 16 (6) Sequence Number: 064037 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing