English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
  Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

Bertram, C., Riahi, K., Hilaire, J., Bosetti, V., Drouet, L., Fricko, O., Malik, A., Nogueira, L., van der Zwaan, B., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D. P., Weitzel, M., Dalla Longa, F., de Boer, H.-S., Emmerling, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Harmsen, M., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P. N., Kriegler, E., Krey, V., Paroussos, L., Saygin, D., Vrontisi, Z., Luderer, G. (2021 online): Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals. - Environmental Research Letters.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac09ae

Item is

Basic

show hide
Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25674 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25674_1
Genre: Journal Article

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
Bertram+et+al_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748-9326_ac09ae.pdf (Any fulltext), 951KB
Name:
Bertram+et+al_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748-9326_ac09ae.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Bertram, Christoph1, Author              
Riahi, Keywan2, Author
Hilaire, Jérôme1, Author              
Bosetti, Valentina2, Author
Drouet, Laurent2, Author
Fricko, Oliver2, Author
Malik, Aman1, Author              
Nogueira, Larissa2, Author
van der Zwaan, Bob2, Author
van Ruijven, Bas2, Author
van Vuuren, Detlef P.2, Author
Weitzel, Matthias2, Author
Dalla Longa, Francesco2, Author
de Boer, Harmen-Sytze2, Author
Emmerling, Johannes2, Author
Fosse, Florian2, Author
Fragkiadakis, Kostas2, Author
Harmsen, Mathijs2, Author
Keramidas, Kimon2, Author
Kishimoto, Paul Natsuo2, Author
Kriegler, Elmar1, Author              Krey, Volker2, AuthorParoussos, Leonidas2, AuthorSaygin, Deger2, AuthorVrontisi, Zoi2, AuthorLuderer, Gunnar1, Author               more..
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C, it also calls for "making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions". Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models (IAMs). This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2°C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2°C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5°C in all models, and 2°C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2°C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets.

Details

show
hide
Language(s):
 Dates: 2021-06-092021-06-09
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac09ae
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: REMIND
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
MDB-ID: pending
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing