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  Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Boers, N. (2021): Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. - Nature Climate Change, 11, 8, 680-688.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4

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 Creators:
Boers, Niklas1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain. Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced. Significant early-warning signals are found in eight independent AMOC indices, based on observational sea-surface temperature and salinity data from across the Atlantic Ocean basin. These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition.

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 Dates: 2021-06-092021-08-052021-08-26
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Research topic keyword: Oceans
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Green Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 (8) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 680 - 688 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414