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  Terrestrial biodiversity threatened by increasing global aridity velocity under high-level warming

Shi, H., Tian, H., Lange, S., Yang, J., Pan, S., Fu, B., Reyer, C. P. O. (2021): Terrestrial biodiversity threatened by increasing global aridity velocity under high-level warming. - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 118, 36, e2015552118.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015552118

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 Creators:
Shi, Hao1, Author
Tian, Hanqin1, Author
Lange, Stefan2, Author              
Yang, Jia1, Author
Pan, Shufen1, Author
Fu, Bojie1, Author
Reyer, Christopher P. O.2, Author              
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Global aridification is projected to intensify. Yet, our knowledge of its potential impacts on species ranges remains limited. Here, we investigate global aridity velocity and its overlap with three sectors (natural protected areas, agricultural areas, and urban areas) and terrestrial biodiversity in historical (1979 through 2016) and future periods (2050 through 2099), with and without considering vegetation physiological response to rising CO2. Both agricultural and urban areas showed a mean drying velocity in history, although the concurrent global aridity velocity was on average +0.05/+0.20 km/yr−1 (no CO2 effects/with CO2 effects; “+” denoting wetting). Moreover, in drylands, the shifts of vegetation greenness isolines were found to be significantly coupled with the tracks of aridity velocity. In the future, the aridity velocity in natural protected areas is projected to change from wetting to drying across RCP (representative concentration pathway) 2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. When accounting for spatial distribution of terrestrial taxa (including plants, mammals, birds, and amphibians), the global aridity velocity would be -0.15/-0.02 km/yr−1 (“-” denoting drying; historical), -0.12/-0.15 km/yr−1 (RCP2.6), -0.36/-0.10 km/yr−1 (RCP6.0), and -0.75/-0.29 km/yr−1 (RCP8.5), with amphibians particularly negatively impacted. Under all scenarios, aridity velocity shows much higher multidirectionality than temperature velocity, which is mainly poleward. These results suggest that aridification risks may significantly influence the distribution of terrestrial species besides warming impacts and further impact the effectiveness of current protected areas in future, especially under RCP8.5, which best matches historical CO2 emissions

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 Dates: 2021-08-302021-09-01
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2015552118
MDB-ID: yes - 3221
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Forest
Research topic keyword: Policy Advice
OATYPE: Green Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 118 (36) Sequence Number: e2015552118 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals410
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences (NAS)