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  Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations

Boulange, J., Hanasaki, N., Satoh, Y., Yokohata, T., Shiogama, H., Burek, P., Thiery, W., Gerten, D., Müller Schmied, H., Wada, Y., Gosling, S. N., Pokhrel, Y. N., Wanders, N. (2021): Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations. - Environmental Research Letters, 16, 10, 104028.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26016 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26016_1
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Boulange, Julien1, Author
Hanasaki, Naota1, Author
Satoh, Yusuke1, Author
Yokohata, Tokuta1, Author
Shiogama, Hideo1, Author
Burek, Peter1, Author
Thiery, Wim1, Author
Gerten, Dieter2, Author              
Müller Schmied, Hannes1, Author
Wada, Yoshihide1, Author
Gosling, Simon N.1, Author
Pokhrel, Yadu N.1, Author
Wanders, Niko1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient climate in comparison with the equilibrium climate. Therefore, it is unclear whether floods and droughts projected under a transient climate can be systematically substituted for those occurring in an equilibrated climate. Here, by employing a large ensemble of global hydrological models (HMs) forced by global climate models, we assess the validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations. Differences in flood characteristics under transient and equilibrium climates could be largely ascribed to natural variability, indicating that the floods derived from a transient climate reasonably approximate the floods expected in an equally warm, equilibrated climate. By contrast, significant differences in drought intensity between transient and equilibrium climates were detected over a larger global land area than expected from natural variability. Despite the large differences among HMs in representing the low streamflow regime, we found that the drought intensities occurring under a transient climate may not validly represent the intensities in an equally warm equilibrated climate for approximately 6.7% of the global land area.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-09-202021-09-172021-10-05
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc
MDB-ID: pending
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Model / method: LPJmL
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 16 (10) Sequence Number: 104028 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing