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  A forecast of staple crop production in Burkina Faso to enable early warnings of shortages in domestic food availability

Laudien, R., Schauberger, B., Waid, J. L., Gornott, C. (2022): A forecast of staple crop production in Burkina Faso to enable early warnings of shortages in domestic food availability. - Scientific Reports, 12, 1638.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05561-9

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 Creators:
Laudien, Rahel1, Author              
Schauberger, Bernhard1, Author              
Waid, Jillian Lee1, Author              
Gornott, Christoph1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Almost half of the Burkinabe population is moderately or severely affected by food insecurity. With climate change, domestic food production may become more under pressure, further jeopardizing food security. In this study, we focus on the production of maize, sorghum and millet as staple cereal crops in Burkina Faso to assess food availability as one component of food security. Based on a statistical weather-driven crop model, we provide a within-season forecast of crop production 1 month before the harvest. Hindcast results from 1984 to 2018 produce an r2 of 0.95 in case of known harvest areas and an r2 of 0.88 when harvest areas are modelled instead. We compare actually supplied calories with those usually consumed from staple crops, allowing us to provide early information on shortages in domestic cereal production on the national level. Despite the—on average—sufficient domestic cereal production from maize, sorghum and millet, a considerable level of food insecurity prevails for large parts of the population. We suggest to consider such forecasts as an early warning signal for shortages in domestic staple crop production and encourage a comprehensive assessment of all dimensions of food security to rapidly develop counteractions for looming food crises.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-01-132022-01-312022-01-31
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 10
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-05561-9
MDB-ID: yes - 3270
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Adaptation in Agricultural Systems
Working Group: Climate Change and Health
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Weather
Regional keyword: Africa
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
OATYPE: Gold - DEAL Springer Nature
 Degree: -

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Funding program : This work has been funded by the Agrica, the CC&H PI3 and the ClimSec project. Agrica is financed by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Foreign Office and Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). CC&H PI3 is financed by the German Research Foundation (DFG). ClimSec is financed by the German Federal Foreign Office.
Funding organization : -
Project name : Gefördert im Rahmen des Förderprogramms "Open Access Publikationskosten" durch die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Projektnummer 491075472.
Grant ID : -
Funding program : Open-Access-Publikationskosten (491075472)
Funding organization : Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

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Title: Scientific Reports
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, OA
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 12 Sequence Number: 1638 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals2_395
Publisher: Nature