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  Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality

Huber, V., Peña Ortiz, C., Gallego Puyol, D., Lange, S., Sera, F. (2022): Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality. - Environmental Research Letters, 17, 4, 044075.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5dee

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Huber, Veronika1, Autor
Peña Ortiz, Cristina1, Autor
Gallego Puyol, David1, Autor
Lange, Stefan2, Autor              
Sera, Francesco1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Few studies have used empirical evidence of past adaptation to project temperature-related excess mortality under climate change. Here, we assess adaptation in future projections of temperature-related excess mortality by employing evidence of shifting minimum mortality temperatures (MMTs) concurrent with climate warming of recent decades. The study is based on daily non-external mortality and daily mean temperature time-series from 11 Spanish cities covering four decades (1978–2017). It employs distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to describe temperature-mortality associations, and multivariate mixed-effect meta-regression models to derive city- and subperiod-specific MMTs, and subsequently MMT associations with climatic indicators. We use temperature projections for one low- and one high-emission scenario (ssp126, ssp370) derived from five global climate models. Our results show that MMTs have closely tracked mean summer temperatures (MSTs) over time and space, with meta-regression models suggesting that the MMTs increased by 0.73 °C (95%CI: 0.65, 0.80) per 1 °C rise in MST over time, and by 0.84 °C (95%CI: 0.76, 0.92) per 1 °C rise in MST across cities. Future projections, which include adaptation by shifting MMTs according to observed temporal changes, result in 63.5% (95%CI: 50.0, 81.2) lower heat-related excess mortality, 63.7% (95%CI: 30.2, 166.7) higher cold-related excess mortality, and 11.2% (95%CI: −5.5, 39.5) lower total temperature-related excess mortality in the 2090s for ssp370 compared to estimates that do not account for adaptation. For ssp126, assumptions on adaptation have a comparatively small impact on excess mortality estimates. Elucidating the adaptive capacities of societies can motivate strengthened efforts to implement specific adaptation measures directed at reducing heat stress under climate change.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2022-03-152022-04-082022-04
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 11
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5dee
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Cities
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Health
Regional keyword: Europe
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Environmental Research Letters
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 17 (4) Artikelnummer: 044075 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing