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The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021 was awarded to Syukuro Manabe, Klaus Hasselmann, and Giorgio Parisi for their “groundbreaking contributions to our understanding of complex systems,” including major advances in the understanding of our climate and climate change. In this Perspective article, we review their key contributions and discuss their relevance in relation to the present understanding of our climate. We conclude by outlining some promising research directions and open questions in climate science.
Classic complex systems, as coupled pendula, nonlinear circuits, or lasers, are typically constituted by a few elements or subsystems whose dynamical behavior and interactions are nonlinear and may involve memory effects. Due to these properties, they are able to generate rich and even chaotic dynamics, i.e., long-term predictions fail. In contrast, “complicated” systems can be very large, but their governing equations are linear. Thus, their system’s behavior can be understood by using a “reductionist” approach, and it can be well predicted from the behavior of the individual subsystems. However, many real systems are complex and they consist of many components, such as power grids or the human brain. Our Earth's climate system as a whole is another outstanding example of such a large complex system. Additionally, it covers a broad range of scales in space and time. Hence, it cannot be appropriately described and understood by using the reductionist approach but requires advanced techniques from complex systems science. Here, we discuss how the pioneering works of Syukuro Manabe, Klaus Hasselmann, and Giorgio Parisi (Physics Nobel Prize 2021) have given us crucial insights for understanding Earth's climate and basic underlying mechanisms of climate change and what are recent directions in this very active field of research.
