A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

Mosnier, Aline; Javalera-Rincon, Valeria; Jones, Sarah K; Andrew, Robbie; Bai, Zhaohai; Baker, Justin; Basnet, Shyam; Boer, Rizaldi; Chavarro, John; Costa, Wanderson; Daloz, Anne Sophie; DeClerck, Fabrice A; Diaz, Maria; Douzal, Clara; Howe Fan, Andrew Chiah; Fetzer, Ingo; Frank, Federico; Gonzalez-Abraham, Charlotte E; Habiburrachman, A H F; Immanuel, Gito; Harrison, Paula A; Imanirareba, Dative; Jha, Chandan; Jin, Xinpeng; Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar; Leach, Nicholas; Lehtonen, Heikki; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Low, Wai Sern; Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo; McCord, Gordon Carlos; Molla, Kiflu Gedefe; Monjeau, Adrian; Navarro-Garcia, Javier; Neubauer, Rudolf; Obersteiner, Michael; Olguín, Marcela; Orduña-Cabrera, Fernando; Pena, Andres; Pérez-Guzmán, Katya; Potashnikov, Vladimir; Rämö, Janne; Ramos, Fernando M; Rasche, Livia; Gallardo, René Reyes; Schmidt-Traub, Guido; Selomane, Odirilwe; Singh, Vartika; Smith, Alison; Soterroni, Aline C; Sperling, Frank; Steinhauser, Jan; Stevanović, Miodrag; Strokov, Anton; Thomson, Marcus; van Oort, Bob; Vittis, Yiorgos; Wade, Chris; Winarni, Nurul L; Woldeyes, Firew Bekele; Wu, Grace C; Zerriffi, Hisham

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acc044

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A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

Mosnier, A., Javalera-Rincon, V., Jones, S. K., Andrew, R., Bai, Z., Baker, J., Basnet, S., Boer, R., Chavarro, J., Costa, W., Daloz, A. S., DeClerck, F. A., Diaz, M., Douzal, C., Howe Fan, A. C., Fetzer, I., Frank, F., Gonzalez-Abraham, C. E., Habiburrachman, A. H. F., Immanuel, G., Harrison, P. A., Imanirareba, D., Jha, C., Jin, X., Ghosh, R. K., Leach, N., Lehtonen, H., Lotze-Campen, H., Low, W. S., Marcos-Martinez, R., McCord, G. C., Molla, K. G., Monjeau, A., Navarro-Garcia, J., Neubauer, R., Obersteiner, M., Olguín, M., Orduña-Cabrera, F., Pena, A., Pérez-Guzmán, K., Potashnikov, V., Rämö, J., Ramos, F. M., Rasche, L., Gallardo, R. R., Schmidt-Traub, G., Selomane, O., Singh, V., Smith, A., Soterroni, A. C., Sperling, F., Steinhauser, J., Stevanović, M., Strokov, A., Thomson, M., van Oort, B., Vittis, Y., Wade, C., Winarni, N. L., Woldeyes, F. B., Wu, G. C., Zerriffi, H. (2023): A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems. - Environmental Research Letters, 18, 045001.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc044

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Mosnier, Aline¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Javalera-Rincon, Valeria¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Jones, Sarah K¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Andrew, Robbie¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Bai, Zhaohai¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Baker, Justin¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Basnet, Shyam¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Boer, Rizaldi¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Chavarro, John¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Costa, Wanderson¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Daloz, Anne Sophie¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
DeClerck, Fabrice A¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Diaz, Maria¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Douzal, Clara¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Howe Fan, Andrew Chiah¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Fetzer, Ingo¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Frank, Federico¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Gonzalez-Abraham, Charlotte E¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Habiburrachman, A H F¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Immanuel, Gito¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Harrison, Paula A¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Imanirareba, Dative¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Jha, Chandan¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Jin, Xinpeng¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Leach, Nicholas¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Lehtonen, Heikki¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Lotze-Campen, Hermann², ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR??? Low, Wai Sern¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???McCord, Gordon Carlos¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Molla, Kiflu Gedefe¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Monjeau, Adrian¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Navarro-Garcia, Javier¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Neubauer, Rudolf¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Obersteiner, Michael¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Olguín, Marcela¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Orduña-Cabrera, Fernando¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Pena, Andres¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Pérez-Guzmán, Katya¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Potashnikov, Vladimir¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Rämö, Janne¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Ramos, Fernando M¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Rasche, Livia¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Gallardo, René Reyes¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Schmidt-Traub, Guido¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Selomane, Odirilwe¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Singh, Vartika¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Smith, Alison¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Soterroni, Aline C¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Sperling, Frank¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Steinhauser, Jan¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Stevanović, Miodrag², ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR??? Strokov, Anton¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Thomson, Marcus¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???van Oort, Bob¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Vittis, Yiorgos¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Wade, Chris¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Winarni, Nurul L¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Woldeyes, Firew Bekele¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Wu, Grace C¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Zerriffi, Hisham¹, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR??? ???adv_search_btShowMore???

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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13

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???ViewItemFull_lblSubject???: agricultural models, food security, deforestation, climate change mitigation, biodiversity, trade

???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.

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???ViewItemFull_lblLanguages???: eng - English

???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: ???ViewItem_lblDateSubmitted???: 2022-09-12???ViewItem_lblDateAccepted???: 2023-03-01???ViewItem_lblDatePublishedOnline???: 2023-03-21???ViewItem_lblDatePublishedInPrint???: 2023-03-21

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???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_ORGANISATIONALK???: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: RD2 - Climate Resilience
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Land Use and Resilience
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Land-Use Management
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Food & Agriculture
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Mitigation
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Biodiversity
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Land use
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_REGIONALK???: Global
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MODELMETHOD???: MAgPIE
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MDB_ID???: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI)
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: Environmental Research Letters

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