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  Anthropogenic influence on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Asia

Fallah, B. H., Russo, E., Menz, C., Hoffmann, P., Didovets, I., Hattermann, F. F. (2023): Anthropogenic influence on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Asia. - Scientific Reports, 13, 6854.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-33921-6

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???ViewItemFull_lblCiteItemAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28370 ???ViewItemFull_lblCiteItemVersionAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28370_8
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7063876 (???ENUM_CONTENTCATEGORY_supplementary-material???)
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblCreators???:
Fallah, Bijan H.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
Russo, Emmanuele2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Menz, Christoph1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
Hoffmann, Peter1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
Didovets, Iulii1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
Hattermann, Fred Fokko1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: We investigate the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the extreme temperature and precipitation events in Central Asia (CA) during the last 60 years. We bias-adjust and downscale two Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) ensemble outputs, with natural (labelled as hist-nat, driven only by solar and volcanic forcing) and natural plus anthropogenic forcing (labelled as hist, driven by all-forcings), to 0.25∘×0.25∘ spatial resolution. Each ensemble contains six models from ISIMIP, based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The presented downscaling methodology is necessary to create a reliable climate state for regional climate impact studies. Our analysis shows a higher risk of extreme heat events (factor 4 in signal-to-noise ratio) over large parts of CA due to anthropogenic influence. Furthermore, a higher likelihood of extreme precipitation over CA, especially over Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, can be attributed to anthropogenic forcing (over 100% changes in intensity and 20% in frequency). Given that these regions show a high risk of rainfall-triggered landslides and floods during historical times, we report that human-induced climate warming can contribute to extreme precipitation events over vulnerable areas of CA. Our high-resolution data set can be used in impact studies focusing on the attribution of extreme events in CA and is freely available to the scientific community.

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???ViewItemFull_lblLanguages???: eng - English
 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2022-11-162023-04-202023-04-262023-04-26
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblIdentifiers???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_DOI???: 10.1038/s41598-023-33921-6
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MDB_ID???: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI)
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_ORGANISATIONALK???: RD2 - Climate Resilience
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: RD2 - Climate Resilience
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Hydroclimatic Risks
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Attribution
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Extremes
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Climate impacts
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MODELMETHOD???: Machine Learning
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MODELMETHOD???: Nonlinear Data Analysis
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MODELMETHOD???: Model Intercomparison
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MODELMETHOD???: ISIMIP
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_REGIONALK???: Asia
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_OATYPE???: Gold - DEAL Springer Nature
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: Scientific Reports
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???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PUBLISHER???: Nature