English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
  Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time

Bauer, N., Keller, D. P., Garbe, J., Karstens, K., Piontek, F., von Bloh, W., Thiery, W., Zeitz, M., Mengel, M., Strefler, J., Thonicke, K., Winkelmann, R. (2023): Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time. - Environmental Research Letters, 18, 054015.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/accd83

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
Bauer_2023_Environ._Res._Lett._18_054015.pdf (Publisher version), 9MB
Name:
Bauer_2023_Environ._Res._Lett._18_054015.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-

Locators

show
hide
Locator:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7777223 (Supplementary material)
Description:
Code and data

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Bauer, Nicolas1, Author              
Keller, David P.2, Author
Garbe, Julius1, Author              
Karstens, Kristine1, Author              
Piontek, Franziska1, Author              
von Bloh, Werner1, Author              
Thiery, Wim2, Author
Zeitz, Maria1, Author              
Mengel, Matthias1, Author              
Strefler, Jessica1, Author              
Thonicke, Kirsten1, Author              
Winkelmann, Ricarda1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attracted less attention. We link six models for an integrative analysis of the climatic, environmental and socio-economic consequences of temporarily overshooting a carbon budget consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature target along the cause-effect chain from emissions and carbon removals to climate risks and impact. Global climatic indicators such as CO2-concentration and mean temperature closely follow the carbon budget overshoot with mid-century peaks of 50 ppmv and 0.35 °C, respectively. Our findings highlight that investigating overshoot scenarios requires temporally and spatially differentiated analysis of climate, environmental and socioeconomic systems. We find persistent and spatially heterogeneous differences in the distribution of carbon across various pools, ocean heat content, sea-level rise as well as economic damages. Moreover, we find that key impacts, including degradation of marine ecosystem, heat wave exposure and economic damages, are more severe in equatorial areas than in higher latitudes, although absolute temperature changes being stronger in higher latitudes. The detrimental effects of a 1.5 °C warming and the additional effects due to overshoots are strongest in non-OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Constraining the overshoot inflates CO2 prices, thus shifting carbon removal towards early afforestation while reducing the total cumulative deployment only slightly, while mitigation costs increase sharply in developing countries. Thus, scenarios with carbon budget overshoots can reverse global mean temperature increase but imply more persistent and geographically heterogeneous impacts. Overall, the decision about overshooting implies more severe trade-offs between mitigation and impacts in developing countries.

Details

show
hide
Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-11-032023-04-172023-05-022023-05-02
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 18
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/accd83
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Energy Systems
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Ice Dynamics
MDB-ID: yes - 3407
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: MAgPIE
Model / method: PISM-PIK
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show hide
Project name : Gefördert im Rahmen des Förderprogramms "Open Access Publikationskosten" durch die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Projektnummer 491075472
Grant ID : -
Funding program : Open-Access-Publikationskosten (491075472)
Funding organization : Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Environmental Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 18 Sequence Number: 054015 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/150326
Publisher: IOP Publishing