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  China can be self-sufficient in maize production by 2030 with optimal crop management

Luo, N., Meng, Q., Feng, P., Qu, Z., Yu, Y., Liu, D. L., Müller, C., Wang, P. (2023): China can be self-sufficient in maize production by 2030 with optimal crop management. - Nature Communications, 14, 2637.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38355-2

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7857034 (Supplementary material)
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Key code for generating the RF model and figures

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 Creators:
Luo, Ning1, Author              
Meng, Qingfeng2, Author
Feng, Puyu2, Author
Qu, Ziren2, Author
Yu, Yonghong2, Author
Liu, De Li2, Author
Müller, Christoph1, Author              
Wang, Pu2, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Population growth and economic development in China has increased the demand for food and animal feed, raising questions regarding China’s future maize production self-sufficiency. Here, we address this challenge by combining data-driven projections with a machine learning method on data from 402 stations, with data from 87 field experiments across China. Current maize yield would be roughly doubled with the implementation of optimal planting density and management. In the 2030 s, we estimate a 52% yield improvement through dense planting and soil improvement under a high-end climate forcing Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP585), compared with a historical climate trend. Based on our results, yield gains from soil improvement outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. This implies that China can be self-sufficient in maize by using current cropping areas. Our results challenge the view of yield stagnation in most global areas and provide an example of how food security can be achieved with optimal crop-soil management under future climate change scenarios.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-10-282023-04-272023-05-062023-05-06
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 11
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38355-2
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Regional keyword: Asia
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI)
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 14 Sequence Number: 2637 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Nature