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  Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming

Molina Bacca, E. J., Stevanović, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Karstens, K., Chen, D.-M.-C., Leip, D., Müller, C., Minoli, S., Heinke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Folberth, C., Iizumi, T., Jain, A. K., Liu, W., Okada, M., Smerald, A., Zabel, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A. (2023): Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming. - Communications Earth and Environment, 4, 284.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8177495 (???ENUM_CONTENTCATEGORY_supplementary-material???)
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Starting and plotting scripts to replicate Figures and runs for the Climate change-driven global land-use system adaptation under CMIP6-based crop model projections.
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Molina Bacca, Edna J.1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Stevanović, Miodrag1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Karstens, Kristine1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Chen, David Meng-Chuen1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Leip, Debbora1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Müller, Christoph1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Minoli, Sara1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Heinke, Jens1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Jägermeyr, Jonas1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Folberth, Christian2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Iizumi, Toshichika2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Jain, Atul K.2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Liu, Wenfeng2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Okada, Masashi2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Smerald, Andrew2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Zabel, Florian2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Lotze-Campen, Hermann1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Popp, Alexander1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
???ViewItemFull_lblAffiliations???:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.

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???ViewItemFull_lblLanguages???: eng - English
 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2023-01-052023-07-232023-08-102023-08-10
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblIdentifiers???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_DOI???: 10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_ORGANISATIONALK???: RD2 - Climate Resilience
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???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Land Use and Resilience
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Land-Use Management
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MDB_ID???: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see DOI)
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Economics
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Food & Agriculture
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Adaptation
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Climate impacts
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: Communications Earth and Environment
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