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  A Framework to Evaluate and Compare Synthetic Streamflow Scenario Generation Models

Treistmann, F., Penna, D. D. J., Khenayfis, L. d. S., Cavalcante, N. B. R., Souza Filho, F. A., Rocha, R. V., Estacio, A. B. S., Rolim, L. R. S., Pontes Filho, J. D. A., Porto, V. C., Guimarães, S. O., Pessanha, J. F. M., Almeida, V. A., Chan, P. D. S., Lappicy, T., Lima, C. H. R., Detzel, D. H. M., Bessa, M. R. (2023): A Framework to Evaluate and Compare Synthetic Streamflow Scenario Generation Models. - Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos, 28, e43.
https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.282320230115

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 Creators:
Treistmann, F.1, Author
Penna, D. D. J.1, Author
Khenayfis, L. de S.1, Author
Cavalcante, N. B. R.1, Author
Souza Filho, F. A.1, Author
Rocha, R. V.1, Author
Estacio, A. B. S.1, Author
Rolim, L. R. S.1, Author
Pontes Filho, J. D. A.1, Author
Porto, V. C.1, Author
Guimarães, Sullyandro Oliveira2, Author              
Pessanha, J. F. M.1, Author
Almeida, V. A.1, Author
Chan, P. D. S.1, Author
Lappicy, T.1, Author
Lima, C. H. R.1, Author
Detzel, D. H. M.1, Author
Bessa, M. R.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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Free keywords: comparative evaluation framework, synthetic streamflow scenario generation, multivariate multistage probabilistic forecast
 Abstract: Synthetic streamflow scenario generation is particularly important in countries like Brazil, where hydroelectric power generation plays a key role and properly handling the uncertainty of future streamflow is crucial. This paper showcases a collaborative effort within the Brazilian electrical sector to enhance streamflow scenario models, focusing on horizons up to one year. Five institutions proposed diverse methodologies, and their effectiveness was evaluated using a comparative framework. The results reveal the strengths and areas for improvement in each model. GHCen emerged as the top performer, excelling in both short-term and moving average analyses, while the PARX model demonstrated superior performance in specific regions. The PAR(p)-A, which is the official methodology in Brazil, was the second-best model in the moving average analysis. This research offers valuable insights for countries facing similar hydrothermal scheduling and scenario generation challenges.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-10-062023-10-142023-11-272023-11-27
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 17
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Regional keyword: South America
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Working Group: Earth System Modes of Operation
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
DOI: 10.1590/2318-0331.282320230115
 Degree: -

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Title: Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos
Source Genre: Journal, Scopus, oa
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 28 Sequence Number: e43 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/2318-0331
Publisher: Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos