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  Renewable energy planning in Africa: Robustness of mean and extreme multi-model climate change patterns in solar PV and wind energy potentials

Larsen, M. A. D., Bournhonesque, J., Thiery, W., Halsnæs, K., Hattermann, F. F., Hoff, H., Salack, S., Adenle, A., Liersch, S. (2024): Renewable energy planning in Africa: Robustness of mean and extreme multi-model climate change patterns in solar PV and wind energy potentials. - Environmental Research Communications, 6, 015001.
https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad17d4

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Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl1, Autor
Bournhonesque, Jean1, Autor
Thiery, Wim1, Autor
Halsnæs, Kirsten1, Autor
Hattermann, Fred Fokko2, Autor              
Hoff, Holger1, Autor
Salack, Seyni1, Autor
Adenle, Ademola1, Autor
Liersch, Stefan2, Autor              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Increasing renewable sources in the energy mix is essential to mitigate climate change, not least in countries where the energy demand is likely to rise over the coming decades to reduce or even skip durations of time where fossils dominate. For Africa, solar photovoltaic (PV) and inland wind energy, combined with hydropower, provide significant and untapped potentials, whereas trends and robustness measures need further investigation. This study aims to gain insight into distributed trends in solar PV and wind energy potentials over Africa. This study employs relevant metrics, including relative change, model agreement, robustness, bias, and absolute levels for every available model combination and two climate scenarios, with energy planning purposes in mind. The study finds that regional climate models were the primary control of spatio-temporal patterns over their driving global climate model. Solar PV potentials show more coherence between models, a lower bias and general high potentials in most African regions than wind potentials. Favourable locations for inland wind energy include mainly the regions of greater Sahara and the Horn region. For wind and solar potentials combined, scattered locations within Sahara stand out as the most favourable across scenarios and periods. The analysis of minimum energy potentials shows stable conditions despite low potentials in certain regions. The results demonstrate a potential for solar and wind power in most of the African regions and highlight why solar and wind power or synergies of energy mix should be considered for local energy planning and storage solutions.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2023-12-212023-12-212024-01-09
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 26
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad17d4
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Regional keyword: Africa
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
Research topic keyword: Energy
MDB-ID: No data to archive
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Environmental Research Communications
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, oa
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 6 Artikelnummer: 015001 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/190326
Publisher: IOP Publishing