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  Early warning signals of Earth system tipping points

Boulton, C. A., Buxton, J. E., Arellano-Nava, B., Battiany, S., Blaschke, L., Boers, N., Dakos, V., Dylewsky, D., Kefi, S., Lopez-Martinez, C., Parry, I., Ritchie, P., van der Bolt, B., van der Laan, L., Weinans, E. (2023): Early warning signals of Earth system tipping points. - In: Lenton, T., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Loriani, S., Abrams, J., Lade, S. J., Donges, J. F., Buxton, J. E., Milkoreit, M., Powell, T., Smith, S. R., Zimm, C., Bailey, E., Dyke, J. G., Ghadiali, A., Laybourn, L. (Eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023, Exeter : University of Exeter, 155-163.

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 Creators:
Boulton, Chris A. 1, Author
Buxton, Joshua E. 1, Author
Arellano-Nava, Beatriz 1, Author
Battiany, Sebastian 2, Author
Blaschke, Lana2, Author              
Boers, Niklas2, Author              
Dakos, Vasilis 1, Author
Dylewsky, Daniel 1, Author
Kefi, Sonia 1, Author
Lopez-Martinez, Carlos 1, Author
Parry, Isobel 1, Author
Ritchie, Paul 1, Author
van der Bolt, Bregje 1, Author
van der Laan, Larissa 1, Author
Weinans, Els 1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: This chapter focuses on the methods used to predict the movement of parts of the Earth system towards tipping points. It begins by introducing the theory of critical slowing down (CSD), a general phenomenon of slowing recovery from perturbations that happens in many systems being forced slowly towards a tipping point. Then, it describes the various methods that can be used to estimate the occurrence of CSD and the approach of a tipping point, beginning with methods based on changes over time in the system, spatial changes, or changes in network structure, up to more advanced modelling techniques, including AI. These ‘early warning signals’ (EWS) can be used on data from a number of different sources, be these models, field experiments or remotely sensed data from satellites. The chapter considers various case studies that use real-world observations, to show how these methods are being used to predict losses in resilience in these systems. Finally, it explores limitations and potential solutions in the field of EWS, looking ahead to advances in data availability and what this could mean for predicting the movement towards tipping in these Earth systems in the future.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-12-062023-12-06
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
 Degree: -

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Title: The Global Tipping Points Report 2023
Source Genre: Collected Edition
 Creator(s):
Lenton, Timothy1, Editor
Armstrong McKay, David I.1, Editor
Loriani, Sina2, Editor            
Abrams, Jesse1, Editor
Lade, Steven J.1, Editor
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann2, Editor            
Buxton, Joshua E.1, Editor
Milkoreit, Manjana1, Editor
Powell, Tom1, Editor
Smith, Steven R.1, Editor
Zimm, Caroline1, Editor
Bailey, Emma1, Editor
Dyke, James G.1, Editor
Ghadiali, Ashish1, Editor
Laybourn, Laurie1, Editor
Affiliations:
1 External Organizations, ou_persistent22            
2 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13            
Publ. Info: Exeter : University of Exeter
Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 155 - 163 Identifier: -