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  Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints

Bertram, C., Brutschin, E., Drouet, L., Luderer, G., van Ruijven, B., Aleluia Reis, L., Baptista, L. B., de Boer, H.-S., Cui, R., Daioglou, V., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, D., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Hultman, N., Iyer, G., Keramidas, K., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Lamboll, R. D., Mandaroux, R., Rochedo, P., Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, R., Silva, D., Tagomori, I., van Vuuren, D., Vrontisi, Z., Riahi, K. (2024): Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints. - Nature Climate Change, 14, 954-960.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11562539 (???ENUM_CONTENTCATEGORY_supplementary-material???)
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblCreators???:
Bertram, Christoph1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Brutschin, Elina2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Drouet, Laurent2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Luderer, Gunnar1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
van Ruijven, Bas2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Aleluia Reis, Lara2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Baptista, Luiz Bernardo2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
de Boer, Harmen-Sytze2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Cui, Ryna2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Daioglou, Vassilis2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Fosse, Florian2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Fragkiadakis, Dimitris2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Fricko, Oliver2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Fujimori, Shinichiro2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Hultman, Nate2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Iyer, Gokul2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Keramidas, Kimon2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Krey, Volker2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Kriegler, Elmar1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Lamboll, Robin D.2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Mandaroux, Rahel1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           Rochedo, Pedro2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Rogelj, Joeri2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Schaeffer, Roberto2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Silva, Diego2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Tagomori, Isabela2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???van Vuuren, Detlef2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Vrontisi, Zoi2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???Riahi, Keywan2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR??? ???adv_search_btShowMore???
???ViewItemFull_lblAffiliations???:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design.

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???ViewItemFull_lblLanguages???: eng - English
 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2024-08-122024-09-01
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblIdentifiers???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_DOI???: 10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_ORGANISATIONALK???: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Energy Systems
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MDB_ID???: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MODELMETHOD???: REMIND
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_REGIONALK???: Global
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: 1.5/2°C limit
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Mitigation
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Energy
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???project_info_title??? : ENGAGE
???project_info_grant_id??? : 821471
???project_info_funding_info_program_title??? : Horizon 2020 (H2020)
???project_info_funding_info_organization_title??? : European Commission (EC)

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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: Nature Climate Change
???ViewItemFull_lblSourceGenre???: ???ENUM_GENRE_JOURNAL???, SCI, Scopus, p3
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