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Journal Article

Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints

Authors
/persons/resource/Bertram

Bertram,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Brutschin,  Elina
External Organizations;

Drouet,  Laurent
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer,  Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

van Ruijven,  Bas
External Organizations;

Aleluia Reis,  Lara
External Organizations;

Baptista,  Luiz Bernardo
External Organizations;

de Boer,  Harmen-Sytze
External Organizations;

Cui,  Ryna
External Organizations;

Daioglou,  Vassilis
External Organizations;

Fosse,  Florian
External Organizations;

Fragkiadakis,  Dimitris
External Organizations;

Fricko,  Oliver
External Organizations;

Fujimori,  Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Hultman,  Nate
External Organizations;

Iyer,  Gokul
External Organizations;

Keramidas,  Kimon
External Organizations;

Krey,  Volker
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler,  Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lamboll,  Robin D.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/ragel.mandaroux

Mandaroux,  Rahel
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rochedo,  Pedro
External Organizations;

Rogelj,  Joeri
External Organizations;

Schaeffer,  Roberto
External Organizations;

Silva,  Diego
External Organizations;

Tagomori,  Isabela
External Organizations;

van Vuuren,  Detlef
External Organizations;

Vrontisi,  Zoi
External Organizations;

Riahi,  Keywan
External Organizations;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11562539
(Supplementary material)

Fulltext (public)

30319oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 2MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Bertram, C., Brutschin, E., Drouet, L., Luderer, G., van Ruijven, B., Aleluia Reis, L., Baptista, L. B., de Boer, H.-S., Cui, R., Daioglou, V., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, D., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Hultman, N., Iyer, G., Keramidas, K., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Lamboll, R. D., Mandaroux, R., Rochedo, P., Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, R., Silva, D., Tagomori, I., van Vuuren, D., Vrontisi, Z., Riahi, K. (2024): Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints. - Nature Climate Change, 14, 954-960.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30319
Abstract
Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design.