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  Multi-level emission impacts of electrification and coal pathways in China's netzero transition

Gong, C. C., Ueckerdt, F., Bertram, C., Yin, Y., Bantje, D., Pietzcker, R. C., Hoppe, J., Hasse, R., Pehl, M., Moreno Leiva, S., Dürrwächter, J., Müßel, J., Luderer, G. (2025 online): Multi-level emission impacts of electrification and coal pathways in China's netzero transition. - Joule.

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32141 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32141_1
Genre: Journal Article

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mod accepted Revision 1st round Multi-level emission impacts under rapid electrification and uncertain coal power phase-out in China’s netzero transition (1).pdf (Any fulltext), 3MB
 
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14895088 (Supplementary material)
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 Creators:
Gong, Chen Chris1, 2, Author              
Ueckerdt, Falko1, Author              
Bertram, Christoph3, Author
Yin, Yuxin3, Author
Bantje, David1, Author              
Pietzcker, Robert C.1, Author              
Hoppe, Johanna1, Author              
Hasse, Robin1, Author              
Pehl, Michaja1, Author              
Moreno Leiva, Simon1, Author              
Dürrwächter, Jakob1, Author              
Müßel, Jarusch1, Author              
Luderer, Gunnar1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_29970              
3External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply and electrifying end-use sectors. However, there are concerns that electrification may increase emissions while coal power dominates. Using a global climate mitigation model, we explore various electrification scenarios with different coal phase-out timelines and assess their climate impact on China’s power and end-use sectors. A ten-year delay in coal phase-out could alone increase global peak temperature by around 0.02°C. However, on the sectoral level there is no evidence of large additional emission from electrification even under slower coal phase-out. This challenges the sequential interpretation of the “order of abatement” – electrification can begin only when the power sector is almost decarbonized. As long as power emission intensity reduces to below 150 gCO2/kWh by 2040, electrification can substantially reduce the carbon footprint of various energy services. Together with other policies, the direct electrification of buildings, steel, and road transport could avoid roughly 0.035°C of additional warming from China's energy end-use sectors before 2060.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2025-04-092025-05-05
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: 35
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: Lab - Energy Transition
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
OATYPE: Hybrid - DEAL Elsevier
Model / method: REMIND
Regional keyword: Asia
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
 Degree: -

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Project name : INTEGRATE
Grant ID : 01LP1928A
Funding program : -
Funding organization : Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)
Project name : ARIADNE-2
Grant ID : 03SFK5A0-2
Funding program : -
Funding organization : Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)

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Title: Joule
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/joule
Publisher: Elsevier
Publisher: Cell Press