Multi-level emission impacts of electrification and coal pathways in China's 
netzero transition

Gong, Chen Chris; Ueckerdt, Falko; Bertram, Christoph; Yin, Yuxin; Bantje, David; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Hoppe, Johanna; Hasse, Robin; Pehl, Michaja; Moreno Leiva, Simon; Dürrwächter, Jakob; Müßel, Jarusch; Luderer, Gunnar

doi:10.1016/j.joule.2025.101945

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Multi-level emission impacts of electrification and coal pathways in China's netzero transition

Authors

/persons/resource/Chen.Gong

Gong, Chen Chris
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Falko.Ueckerdt

Ueckerdt, Falko
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Bertram, Christoph
External Organizations;

Yin, Yuxin
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/David.Bantje

Bantje, David
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Robert.Pietzcker

Pietzcker, Robert C.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Johanna.Hoppe

Hoppe, Johanna
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/robin.krekeler

Hasse, Robin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/michaja.pehl

Pehl, Michaja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Moreno.Leiva

Moreno Leiva, Simon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/jakob.duerrwaechter

Dürrwächter, Jakob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/jarusch.muessel

Müßel, Jarusch
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14895088
(Supplementary material)

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Citation

Gong, C. C., Ueckerdt, F., Bertram, C., Yin, Y., Bantje, D., Pietzcker, R. C., Hoppe, J., Hasse, R., Pehl, M., Moreno Leiva, S., Dürrwächter, J., Müßel, J., Luderer, G. (2025 online): Multi-level emission impacts of electrification and coal pathways in China's netzero transition. - Joule.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2025.101945

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32141

Abstract

Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply and electrifying end-use sectors. However, there are concerns that electrification may increase emissions while coal power dominates. Using a global climate mitigation model, we explore various electrification scenarios with different coal phase-out timelines and assess their climate impact on China’s power and end-use sectors. A ten-year delay in coal phase-out could alone increase global peak temperature by around 0.02°C. However, on the sectoral level there is no evidence of large additional emission from electrification even under slower coal phase-out. This challenges the sequential interpretation of the “order of abatement” – electrification can begin only when the power sector is almost decarbonized. As long as power emission intensity reduces to below 150 gCO2/kWh by 2040, electrification can substantially reduce the carbon footprint of various energy services. Together with other policies, the direct electrification of buildings, steel, and road transport could avoid roughly 0.035°C of additional warming from China's energy end-use sectors before 2060.