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Abstract:
Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply and electrifying
end-use sectors. However, there are concerns that electrification may increase emissions while coal
power dominates. Using a global climate mitigation model, we explore various electrification
scenarios with different coal phase-out timelines and assess their climate impact on China’s power and
end-use sectors. A ten-year delay in coal phase-out could alone increase global peak temperature by
around 0.02°C. However, on the sectoral level there is no evidence of large additional emission from
electrification even under slower coal phase-out. This challenges the sequential interpretation of the
“order of abatement” – electrification can begin only when the power sector is almost decarbonized.
As long as power emission intensity reduces to below 150 gCO2/kWh by 2040, electrification can
substantially reduce the carbon footprint of various energy services. Together with other policies, the
direct electrification of buildings, steel, and road transport could avoid roughly 0.035°C of additional
warming from China's energy end-use sectors before 2060.
