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Abstract:
Transport research has long focused on comparing climate change mitigation strategies. However, it remains unclear how the effects of mitigation strategies on climate and non-climate externalities compare. This paper assesses the mitigation potentials of a comprehensive set of transport transformation strategies from an integrated modeling perspective, going beyond the assessment of climate change by including health-related externalities. We analyze transformation scenarios clustered along three interventions: lifestyle changes (LSC), electrification, and efficiency improvements. All clusters yield significant climate mitigation potential, with electrification most effectively reducing CO2 emissions. LSCs allow for immediate emission reductions, are effective in hard-to-electrify subsectors, and facilitate the overall energy system transformation. They also have the strongest impact on overall transport externalities, especially due to activity-related health benefits. When compared on a monetarized basis to the reference scenario in 2050, LSCs reduce adverse externalities by 65 %, in particular by increasing health benefits and reducing traffic accidents, making up 85 % of these savings. Based on this, we conclude that policymaking should advance both the electrification of road transport and promote mobility behavior towards shared and active modes to minimize CO2 emissions while maximizing co-benefits.
