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  Improvements in life expectancy mask rising trends in heat-related excess mortality attributable to climate change

Huber, V., Breitner-Busch, S., Feldbusch, H., Frieler, K., He, C., Matthies-Wiesler, F., Mengel, M., Zhang, S., Peters, A., Schneider, A. (2025): Improvements in life expectancy mask rising trends in heat-related excess mortality attributable to climate change. - Nature Communications, 16, 11632.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66681-0

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???ViewItemFull_lblCiteItemAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33527 ???ViewItemFull_lblCiteItemVersionAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33527_3
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblCreators???:
Huber, Veronika1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Breitner-Busch, Susanne1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Feldbusch, Hanna1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Frieler, Katja2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
He, Cheng1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Matthies-Wiesler, Franziska1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Mengel, Matthias2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
Zhang, Siqi1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Peters, Annette1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Schneider, Alexandra1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
???ViewItemFull_lblAffiliations???:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: Previous attribution studies of heat-related excess mortality have given limited attention to temporal trends in vulnerability and their non-climatic drivers. Here, we address this gap by combining counterfactual temperature data derived from multidecadal reanalysis series with time-varying warm-season temperature-mortality associations for the 15 most populous cities in Germany over 1993-2022. We find that declining vulnerability, associated with improvements in life expectancy, has led to decreasing trends in heat-related excess mortality in most cities despite summer warming. In contrast, if life expectancies had not improved, climate change would have induced increasing trends in the heat-related death burden. The growing anthropogenic fingerprint also emerges in the relative proportion of heat-related excess mortality attributable to climate change, which increased by 5.6% per decade (95% confidence interval: 2.6%, 8.6%), averaging 53.6 % (49.8%, 58.9%) across the study period. Our results underline the importance of accounting for evolving vulnerability when attributing human health outcomes to climate change.

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???ViewItemFull_lblLanguages???: eng - English
 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2024-10-232025-11-122025-11-262025-12-30
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblIdentifiers???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_DOI???: 10.1038/s41467-025-66681-0
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_ORGANISATIONALK???: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MDB_ID???: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Climate impacts
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Health
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_REGIONALK???: Germany
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Inter-Sectoral Impact Attribution and Future Risks
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_OATYPE???: Gold Open Access
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Attribution
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: Nature Communications
???ViewItemFull_lblSourceGenre???: ???ENUM_GENRE_JOURNAL???, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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