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Abstract:
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are crucial for climate policymaking, offering climate mitigation scenarios and contributing to IPCC assessments. However, IAMs face criticism for lack of transparency and limited ability to represent recent technology diffusion and dynamics. We introduce the Potsdam Integrated Assessment Modeling validation tool, piamValidation, an open-source R package for validating IAM scenarios. The piamValidation tool enables systematic comparisons of variables from extensive IAM datasets against historical data and feasibility bounds or across scenarios and models. This functionality is particularly valuable for harmonizing scenarios across multiple IAMs. Moreover, the tool facilitates the systematic comparison of near-term technology dynamics with external observational data, including historical trends, near-term developments, and empirical findings. We apply the tool in two application cases. First, to scenarios from the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) to demonstrate its general applicability, and second to the integrated assessment model REMIND for near-term technology trend validation, illustrating its potential to enhance the transparency and reliability of IAMs. We apply the tool in two application cases. First, to scenarios from the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) to demonstrate its general applicability, and second to the integrated assessment model REMIND for near-term technology trend validation, illustrating its potential to enhance the transparency and reliability of IAMs.
