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  Combined models of violent conflict and natural hazards improve predictions of household mobility in Bangladesh

Leis, M., Petrova, K. (2026): Combined models of violent conflict and natural hazards improve predictions of household mobility in Bangladesh. - Communications Earth and Environment, 7, 67.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03086-3

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblCreators???:
Leis, Maxine1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Petrova, Kristina2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???                 
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: In 2023, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reported over 110 million displaced individuals globally, many in regions facing extreme weather and violence. Here we examine how these crises interact to shape household mobility in Bangladesh. Using data linking local conflict events, natural hazards, and household characteristics from 2011 to 2018, we apply machine learning models to capture complex, non-linear relationships between these risks. We find that combining conflict and hazard information improves predictions of household mobility. While exposure to violence or disasters increases mobility, households with remittances are more likely to move, whereas those with loans often remain. Interactions, such as between one-sided violence and landslides, further amplify movement, highlighting the importance of understanding how multiple stressors jointly influence household decisions.

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???ViewItemFull_lblLanguages???: eng - English
 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2025-04-142025-12-012025-12-192026-01-21
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???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_WORKINGGROUP???: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Population Dynamics
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Security & Migration
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Extremes
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Climate impacts
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_REGIONALK???: Asia
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_REGIONALK???: Low/Middle Income Countries
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: Communications Earth and Environment
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