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  Distribution-based prediction of noise-induced tipping

Ma, J., Fan, X., Wang, R., Wang, X., Feng, J., Kurths, J., Xu, Y. (2026): Distribution-based prediction of noise-induced tipping. - EPL (Europhysics Letters), 153, 6, 62002.
https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/ae51be

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???ViewItemFull_lblCiteItemAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34657 ???ViewItemFull_lblCiteItemVersionAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34657_1
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblCreators???:
Ma, Jinzhong1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Fan, Xuanqi1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Wang, Ruifang1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Wang, Xiaolong1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Feng, Jing1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
Kurths, Jürgen2, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???           
Xu, Yong1, ???ENUM_CREATORROLE_AUTHOR???
???ViewItemFull_lblAffiliations???:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 ???ViewItemFull_lblAbstract???: The occurrence of noise-induced tipping often poses a serious threat to the safety and stability of systems. Therefore, achieving early warning of noise-induced tipping is particularly important. Considering that tipping events may be difficult to recover from once they occur, this letter presents a criterion for identifying the occurrence of noise-induced tipping, as well as a method for recording its occurrence time. Taking ecological and engineering systems as examples, the distribution of occurrence time for noise-induced tipping is statistically obtained. Then, the distribution type is examined using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Quantile-Quantile plot. It is found that the occurrence time of noise-induced tipping follows a Gaussian distribution. Based on these results, we can predict the time window of noise-induced tipping and calculate the probability of its occurrence within a certain interval. Our findings provide a new perspective for predicting catastrophic tipping events.

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???ViewItemFull_lblLanguages???: eng - English
 ???ViewItemFull_lblDates???: 2026-03-262026-03-26
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 ???ViewItemFull_lblIdentifiers???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_DOI???: 10.1209/0295-5075/ae51be
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_MDB_ID???: No data to archive
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PIKDOMAIN???: RD4 - Complexity Science
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_ORGANISATIONALK???: RD4 - Complexity Science
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Complex Networks
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Nonlinear Dynamics
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_RESEARCHTK???: Tipping Elements
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???ViewItemFull_lblSourceTitle???: EPL (Europhysics Letters)
???ViewItemFull_lblSourceGenre???: ???ENUM_GENRE_JOURNAL???, SCI, Scopus, p3
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???ViewItemFull_lblPages???: ???lbl_noEntry??? ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceVolumeIssue???: 153 (6) ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceSequenceNo???: 62002 ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceStartEndPage???: ???lbl_noEntry??? ???ViewItemFull_lblSourceIdentifier???: ???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_CONE???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals132
???ENUM_IDENTIFIERTYPE_PUBLISHER???: IOP Publishing