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Distribution-based prediction of noise-induced tipping

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Ma,  Jinzhong
External Organizations;

Fan,  Xuanqi
External Organizations;

Wang,  Ruifang
External Organizations;

Wang,  Xiaolong
External Organizations;

Feng,  Jing
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Juergen.Kurths

Kurths,  Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Xu,  Yong
External Organizations;

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Ma, J., Fan, X., Wang, R., Wang, X., Feng, J., Kurths, J., Xu, Y. (2026): Distribution-based prediction of noise-induced tipping. - EPL (Europhysics Letters), 153, 6, 62002.
https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/ae51be


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The occurrence of noise-induced tipping often poses a serious threat to the safety and stability of systems. Therefore, achieving early warning of noise-induced tipping is particularly important. Considering that tipping events may be difficult to recover from once they occur, this letter presents a criterion for identifying the occurrence of noise-induced tipping, as well as a method for recording its occurrence time. Taking ecological and engineering systems as examples, the distribution of occurrence time for noise-induced tipping is statistically obtained. Then, the distribution type is examined using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Quantile-Quantile plot. It is found that the occurrence time of noise-induced tipping follows a Gaussian distribution. Based on these results, we can predict the time window of noise-induced tipping and calculate the probability of its occurrence within a certain interval. Our findings provide a new perspective for predicting catastrophic tipping events.