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  Atmospheric river trajectories organise along a global transport network

Braun, T., Vallejo Bernal, S. M., Marwan, N., Kurths, J., Quaas, J., Díaz-Guilera, A., Gimeno, L., Mahecha, M. D. (2026): Atmospheric river trajectories organise along a global transport network. - Earth System Dynamics, 17, 3, 695-716.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-695-2026

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Braun_2026_esd-17-695-2026.pdf (Publisher version), 12MB
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Braun_2026_esd-17-695-2026.pdf
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 Creators:
Braun, Tobias1, Author                 
Vallejo Bernal, Sara Maria1, Author           
Marwan, Norbert1, Author                 
Kurths, Jürgen1, Author           
Quaas, Johannes2, Author
Díaz-Guilera, Albert2, Author
Gimeno, Luis2, Author
Mahecha, Miguel D.2, Author
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) transport vast amounts of water vapor and cause weather extremes. However, they have typically been studied as isolated events rather than as components of a global transport system. By mapping ARs worldwide, we reveal that their transport is organized along a sparse set of preferred pathways forming a global network. Recognizing ARs as a globally interconnected system is highly relevant, not only for advancing atmospheric science but also for improving forecasts of extreme precipitation, droughts, and polar ice melt under climate change. Beyond the familiar storm tracks, we identify hubs of pronounced vapor transport changes and demonstrate that polar regions act as structural accumulation regions for persistent ARs. ARs preferentially travel along circumglobal atmospheric highways shaped by teleconnection patterns and circulation regimes, providing new opportunities for AR prediction. While previous research recognized only five AR basins, we uncover a larger, hierarchically organized set of interconnected basins that provides a more comprehensive understanding of how regional AR hotspots are embedded within large-scale flow. The global AR transport network links synoptic storms to planetary circulation, illuminating hidden pathways in the global water cycle.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2026-06-122026-06-12
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 22
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/esd-17-695-2026
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Working Group: Time Series Analysis
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Weather
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth System Dynamics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 17 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 695 - 716 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1402282
Publisher: Copernicus