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  Geographical and temporal scope and current setting

Brouillet, A., Kluge, L., Zittis, G. (2026): Geographical and temporal scope and current setting. - In: Lange, M. A., Majdalani, R., Cramer, W., Guiot, J., Gattacceca, J. C., Marini, K. (Eds.), Environmental change, conflict and human migration in the Mediterranean Basin, (MedECC Reports), Marseille, France : Mediterranean Experts on Climate and environmental Change (MedECC), 63-80.
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17984864

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_35212 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_35212_1
Genre: Contribution to Collected Edition

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expert-analysis-environmental-change-conflict-migration-full-report-web.pdf (Publisher version), 17MB
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 Creators:
Brouillet, Audrey1, Author                 
Kluge, Lucas1, Author                 
Zittis, George2, Author
Bircan, Tuba2, Contributor
Nikita, Efthymia2, Contributor
Yildiz, Dilek2, Contributor
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The Mediterranean region covered in this Expert Analysis comprises the semi-enclosed Mediterranean Sea and its bordering countries, which belong to Europe, Asia and Africa. The current population is estimated between 480 and 520 million. The region comprises a variety of climate zones. This Analysis aims to synthesise past and present observed trends in human mobility and migration, as well as future projections in all the related drivers, including changes in climate, environment, ecosystems, conflicts and security. Due to its geographical continuity and diverse cultural, political, and economic settings, the Mediterranean region exhibits significant socioeconomic disparities between northern and southern countries. These inequalities increase the region's vulnerability to environmental challenges. All Mediterranean subregions have warmed substantially during the last century. Observed warming now exceeds 1.5°C since the pre-industrial era. The region is therefore warming significantly faster than what is being observed globally. Observed and projected precipitation trends are less robust than temperature trends. Interannual climate variability is considered the dominant driver of rainfall anomalies in the Mediterranean. The magnitude, direction and significance of trends vary between Mediterranean locations, except for consistent evidence of ongoing drying in the eastern parts of the Basin. Climate-related extreme events, particularly heat waves and droughts, are expected to intensify in a continuously warming Mediterranean region. Ongoing political instability and conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East are expected to continue to affect mobility patterns in the Mediterranean region. Despite increasing border controls, current migration flows are expected to increase in the coming decades.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2026-09-152026-09-15
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: No data to archive
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Adaptation in Agricultural Systems
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Security & Migration
Research topic keyword: Inequality and Equity
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17984864
 Degree: -

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Title: Environmental change, conflict and human migration in the Mediterranean Basin
Source Genre: Journal
 Creator(s):
Lange, Manfred A.1, Editor
Majdalani, Roula1, Editor
Cramer, Wolfgang1, Editor
Guiot, Joël1, Editor
Gattacceca, Julie Claire1, Editor
Marini, Katarzyna1, Editor
Affiliations:
1 External Organizations, ou_persistent22            
Publ. Info: Marseille, France : Mediterranean Experts on Climate and environmental Change (MedECC)
Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 63 - 80 Identifier: ISBN: 978-2-493662-16-3
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14800746

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Title: MedECC Reports
Source Genre: Series
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Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: -