Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three 
independent methods

Liu, B.; Asseng, S.; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, F.; Elliott, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Martre, P.; Ruane, A.; Wallach, D.; Jones, J. W.; Rosenzweig, C.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Alderman, P.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A. C.; Deryng, D.; De Sanctis, D.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Folberth, C.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izzaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Kimball, B. A.; Koehler, A.-K.; Kumar, S. N.; Nendel, C.; O'leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Ottman, M. J.; Palosuo, T.; Prasad, P. V.; Priesack, E.; Pugh, T. A.; Reynolds, M.; Rezaei, E. E.; Rötter, R. P.; Schmid, E.; Semenov, M.; Shcherbak, I.; Stehfest, E.; Stöckle, C. O.; Stratonovich, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P. J.; Waha, Katharina; Wall, G. W.; Wang, E.; White, J.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.

doi:10.1038/nclimate3115

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学術論文

Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Authors

Liu, B.
External Organizations;

Asseng, S.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Ewert, F.
External Organizations;

Elliott, J.
External Organizations;

Lobell, D. B.
External Organizations;

Martre, P.
External Organizations;

Ruane, A.
External Organizations;

Wallach, D.
External Organizations;

Jones, J. W.
External Organizations;

Rosenzweig, C.
External Organizations;

Aggarwal, P. K.
External Organizations;

Alderman, P.
External Organizations;

Anothai, J.
External Organizations;

Basso, B.
External Organizations;

Biernath, C.
External Organizations;

Cammarano, D.
External Organizations;

Challinor, A. C.
External Organizations;

Deryng, D.
External Organizations;

De Sanctis, D.
External Organizations;

Doltra, J.
External Organizations;

Fereres, E.
External Organizations;

Folberth, C.
External Organizations;

Garcia-Vila, M.
External Organizations;

Gayler, S.
External Organizations;

Hoogenboom, G.
External Organizations;

Hunt, L. A.
External Organizations;

Izzaurralde, R. C.
External Organizations;

Jabloun, M.
External Organizations;

Jones, C. D.
External Organizations;

Kersebaum, K. C.
External Organizations;

Kimball, B. A.
External Organizations;

Koehler, A.-K.
External Organizations;

Kumar, S. N.
External Organizations;

Nendel, C.
External Organizations;

O'leary, G.
External Organizations;

Olesen, J. E.
External Organizations;

Ottman, M. J.
External Organizations;

Palosuo, T.
External Organizations;

Prasad, P. V.
External Organizations;

Priesack, E.
External Organizations;

Pugh, T. A.
External Organizations;

Reynolds, M.
External Organizations;

Rezaei, E. E.
External Organizations;

Rötter, R. P.
External Organizations;

Schmid, E.
External Organizations;

Semenov, M.
External Organizations;

Shcherbak, I.
External Organizations;

Stehfest, E.
External Organizations;

Stöckle, C. O.
External Organizations;

Stratonovich, P.
External Organizations;

Streck, T.
External Organizations;

Supit, I.
External Organizations;

Tao, F.
External Organizations;

Thorburn, P. J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/katharina.waha

Waha, Katharina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Wall, G. W.
External Organizations;

Wang, E.
External Organizations;

White, J.
External Organizations;

Wolf, J.
External Organizations;

Zhao, Z.
External Organizations;

Zhu, Y.
External Organizations;

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引用

Liu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D. B., Martre, P., Ruane, A., Wallach, D., Jones, J. W., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P. K., Alderman, P., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. C., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, D., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Folberth, C., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izzaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Kimball, B. A., Koehler, A.-K., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Ottman, M. J., Palosuo, T., Prasad, P. V., Priesack, E., Pugh, T. A., Reynolds, M., Rezaei, E. E., Rötter, R. P., Schmid, E., Semenov, M., Shcherbak, I., Stehfest, E., Stöckle, C. O., Stratonovich, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P. J., Waha, K., Wall, G. W., Wang, E., White, J., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z., & Zhu, Y. (2016). Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change, 6(12), 1130-1136. doi:10.1038/nclimate3115.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21032

要旨

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.