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Journal Article

Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe - their causes and consequences for decision making

Authors
/persons/resource/zbyszek

Kundzewicz,  Zbigniew W.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Valentina.Krysanova

Krysanova,  Valentina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Dankers,  R.
External Organizations;

Hirabayashi,  Y.
External Organizations;

Kanae,  S.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Fred.Hattermann

Hattermann,  Fred Fokko
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Huang,  S.
External Organizations;

Milly,  P. C. D.
External Organizations;

Stoffel,  M.
External Organizations;

Driessen,  P. P. J.
External Organizations;

Matczak,  P.
External Organizations;

Quevauviller,  P.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/emdir

Schellnhuber,  Hans Joachim
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Fulltext (public)

7291oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 2MB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Kundzewicz, Z. W., Krysanova, V., Dankers, R., Hirabayashi, Y., Kanae, S., Hattermann, F. F., Huang, S., Milly, P. C. D., Stoffel, M., Driessen, P. P. J., Matczak, P., Quevauviller, P., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2017): Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe - their causes and consequences for decision making. - Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62, 1, 1-14.
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1241398


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21073
Abstract
This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.