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Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: implications of agricultural management and dietary choices

Urheber*innen
/persons/resource/Isabelle.Weindl

Weindl,  Isabelle
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky,  Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Rolinski

Rolinski,  Susanne
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/anne.biewald

Biewald,  Anne
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen,  Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jan.Dietrich

Dietrich,  Jan Philipp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder,  Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/stevanovic

Stevanović,  Miodrag
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Sibyll.Schaphoff

Schaphoff,  Sibyll
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp,  Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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7749oa.pdf
(Postprint), 3MB

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Zitation

Weindl, I., Bodirsky, B. L., Rolinski, S., Biewald, A., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Dietrich, J. P., Humpenöder, F., Stevanović, M., Schaphoff, S., Popp, A. (2017): Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: implications of agricultural management and dietary choices. - Global Environmental Change, 47, 121-132.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.09.010


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21869
Zusammenfassung
Human activities use more than half of accessible freshwater, above all for agriculture. Most approaches for reconciling water conservation with feeding a growing population focus on the cropping sector. However, livestock production is pivotal to agricultural resource use, due to its low resource-use efficiency upstream in the food supply chain. Using a global modelling approach, we quantify the current and future contribution of livestock production, under different demand- and supply-side scenarios, to the consumption of “green” precipitation water infiltrated into the soil and “blue” freshwater withdrawn from rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Currently, cropland feed production accounts for 38% of crop water consumption and grazing involves 29% of total agricultural water consumption (9990 km3 yr−1). Our analysis shows that changes in diets and livestock productivity have substantial implications for future consumption of agricultural blue water (19–36% increase compared to current levels) and green water (26–69% increase), but they can, at best, slow down trends of rising water requirements for decades to come. However, moderate productivity reductions in highly intensive livestock systems are possible without aggravating water scarcity. Productivity gains in developing regions decrease total agricultural water consumption, but lead to expansion of irrigated agriculture, due to the shift from grassland/green water to cropland/blue water resources. While the magnitude of the livestock water footprint gives cause for concern, neither dietary choices nor changes in livestock productivity will solve the water challenge of future food supply, unless accompanied by dedicated water protection policies.