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Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy

Urheber*innen

Hasegawa,  T.
External Organizations;

Fujimori,  S.
External Organizations;

Havlik,  P.
External Organizations;

Valin,  H.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky,  Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Doelman,  J. C.
External Organizations;

Fellmann,  T.
External Organizations;

Kyle,  P.
External Organizations;

Koopman,  J. F. L.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen,  Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Mason D'Croz,  D.
External Organizations;

Ochi,  Y.
External Organizations;

Perez Dominguez,  I.
External Organizations;

Stehfest,  E.
External Organizations;

Sulser,  T. B.
External Organizations;

Tabeau,  A.
External Organizations;

Takahashi,  K.
External Organizations;

Takakura,  J.
External Organizations;

van Mejl,  H.
External Organizations;

Zeist,  W.-J. van
External Organizations;

Wiebe,  K.
External Organizations;

Witzke,  P.
External Organizations;

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22575oa.pdf
(Postprint), 2MB

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Zitation

Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Valin, H., Bodirsky, B. L., Doelman, J. C., Fellmann, T., Kyle, P., Koopman, J. F. L., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason D'Croz, D., Ochi, Y., Perez Dominguez, I., Stehfest, E., Sulser, T. B., Tabeau, A., Takahashi, K., Takakura, J., van Mejl, H., Zeist, W.-J.-v., Wiebe, K., Witzke, P. (2018): Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy. - Nature Climate Change, 8, 8, 699-703.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22575
Zusammenfassung
Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop-production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions1,2,3. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect impacts on prices and supplies of key agricultural commodities4,5,6. Here we conduct a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability and the population at risk of hunger. A robust finding is that by 2050, stringent climate mitigation policy, if implemented evenly across all sectors and regions, would have a greater negative impact on global hunger and food consumption than the direct impacts of climate change. The negative impacts would be most prevalent in vulnerable, low-income regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where food security problems are already acute.