Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change 
mitigation policy

Hasegawa, T.; Fujimori, S.; Havlik, P.; Valin, H.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Doelman, J. C.; Fellmann, T.; Kyle, P.; Koopman, J. F. L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason D'Croz, D.; Ochi, Y.; Perez Dominguez, I.; Stehfest, E.; Sulser, T. B.; Tabeau, A.; Takahashi, K.; Takakura, J.; van Mejl, H.; Zeist, W.-J. van; Wiebe, K.; Witzke, P.

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x

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学術論文

Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy

Authors

Hasegawa, T.
External Organizations;

Fujimori, S.
External Organizations;

Havlik, P.
External Organizations;

Valin, H.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Doelman, J. C.
External Organizations;

Fellmann, T.
External Organizations;

Kyle, P.
External Organizations;

Koopman, J. F. L.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Mason D'Croz, D.
External Organizations;

Ochi, Y.
External Organizations;

Perez Dominguez, I.
External Organizations;

Stehfest, E.
External Organizations;

Sulser, T. B.
External Organizations;

Tabeau, A.
External Organizations;

Takahashi, K.
External Organizations;

Takakura, J.
External Organizations;

van Mejl, H.
External Organizations;

Zeist, W.-J. van
External Organizations;

Wiebe, K.
External Organizations;

Witzke, P.
External Organizations;

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22575oa.pdf
(ポストプリント), 2MB

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引用

Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Valin, H., Bodirsky, B. L., Doelman, J. C., Fellmann, T., Kyle, P., Koopman, J. F. L., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason D'Croz, D., Ochi, Y., Perez Dominguez, I., Stehfest, E., Sulser, T. B., Tabeau, A., Takahashi, K., Takakura, J., van Mejl, H., Zeist, W.-J.-v., Wiebe, K., & Witzke, P. (2018). Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy. Nature Climate Change, 8(8), 699-703. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_22575

要旨

Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop-production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions1,2,3. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect impacts on prices and supplies of key agricultural commodities4,5,6. Here we conduct a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability and the population at risk of hunger. A robust finding is that by 2050, stringent climate mitigation policy, if implemented evenly across all sectors and regions, would have a greater negative impact on global hunger and food consumption than the direct impacts of climate change. The negative impacts would be most prevalent in vulnerable, low-income regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where food security problems are already acute.