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Journal Article

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change

Authors

Shiogama,  H.
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Hasegawa,  T.
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Fujimori,  S.
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Murakami,  D.
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Takahashi,  K.
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Tanaka,  K.
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Emori,  S.
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Kubota,  I.
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Abe,  M.
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Imada,  Y.
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Watanabe,  M.
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Mitchell,  D.
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Schaller,  N.
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Sillmann,  J.
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Fischer,  E. M.
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Scinocca,  J. F.
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Bethke,  I.
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Lierhammer,  L.
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Takakura,  J.
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Trautmann,  T.
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Döll,  P.
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/persons/resource/sebastian.ostberg

Ostberg,  Sebastian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Müller Schmied,  H.
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Saeed,  F.
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/persons/resource/schleussner

Schleussner,  Carl-Friedrich
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Fulltext (public)

8633oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 2MB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Shiogama, H., Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Murakami, D., Takahashi, K., Tanaka, K., Emori, S., Kubota, I., Abe, M., Imada, Y., Watanabe, M., Mitchell, D., Schaller, N., Sillmann, J., Fischer, E. M., Scinocca, J. F., Bethke, I., Lierhammer, L., Takakura, J., Trautmann, T., Döll, P., Ostberg, S., Müller Schmied, H., Saeed, F., Schleussner, C.-F. (2019): Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change. - Environmental Research Letters, 14, 12, 124022.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5256


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_23389
Abstract
Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large ensembles of 2 °C and 1.5 °C warming simulations. In the 2 °C runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world's population is projected to experience a present day 1-in-10 year hot day event every other year at 2 °C warming. The regions with relatively large increases of these four hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO2 emissions, low-income and high vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, compared to 2 °C, is projected to lower increases in the four hazard indicators especially in those regions.