Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission 
scenarios

Luderer, Gunnar; Madeddu, Silvia; Merfort, Leon; Ueckerdt, Falko; Pehl, Michaja; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Rottoli, Marianna; Schreyer, Felix; Bauer, Nicolas; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bertram, Christoph; Dirnaichner, Alois; Humpenöder, Florian; Levesque, Antoine; Popp, Alexander; Rodrigues, Renato; Strefler, Jessica; Kriegler, Elmar

doi:10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z

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Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios

Authors

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Silvia.Madeddu

Madeddu, Silvia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/leon.merfort

Merfort, Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Falko.Ueckerdt

Ueckerdt, Falko
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/michaja.pehl

Pehl, Michaja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Robert.Pietzcker

Pietzcker, Robert C.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Rottoli

Rottoli, Marianna
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Felix.Schreyer

Schreyer, Felix
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Nicolas.Bauer

Bauer, Nicolas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/lavinia.baumstark

Baumstark, Lavinia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Bertram

Bertram, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/dirnaichner

Dirnaichner, Alois
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Antoine.Levesque

Levesque, Antoine
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/renato.rodrigues

Rodrigues, Renato
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jessica.Strefler

Strefler, Jessica
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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26440oa.pdf
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26440_SupplementaryInfo.pdf
(Supplementary material), 2MB

Citation

Luderer, G., Madeddu, S., Merfort, L., Ueckerdt, F., Pehl, M., Pietzcker, R. C., Rottoli, M., Schreyer, F., Bauer, N., Baumstark, L., Bertram, C., Dirnaichner, A., Humpenöder, F., Levesque, A., Popp, A., Rodrigues, R., Strefler, J., Kriegler, E. (2022): Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios. - Nature Energy, 7, 1, 32-42.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26440

Abstract

Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements.