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Abstract

Study region: Burundi is one of the poorest countries in the world and hence very vulnerable to climate change. It is covered by the Kagera, Malagarasi, and Tanganyika River basins. - Study focus: We investigated the hydro-climatic impacts of climate change over Burundi projected by an ensemble of 19 regional climate models and an eco-hydrological model in two future periods under the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. - New hydro-climatic Insights: We found a robust increase in annual and seasonal average temperature over Burundi in all scenarios, characterized by a significant annual rising trend along the 21st century and the increase in every single month, especially in the dry season (up to 5.2 °C under RCP8.5-P2). Precipitation would increase in the north, except in February and September. In the south, precipitation would decrease throughout the year, particularly in the onset and offset of the rainy season and from December to February. This would entail the prolongation and severity of the long and short dry periods. These changes generate increases in the long-term annual mean discharges in North Burundi (up to 44% in small catchments and 29% in larger ones). In southern Burundi the discharge would decrease along the year (up to −16.8%) with exception of November-December in the southeast (up to 27.9%). Besides, the higher daily extreme river discharges found over the Ruvubu basin imply a higher risk of floods.